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Thread: Oil dips below $47

  1. #1
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    Oil dips below $47

    No doubt we will be again told that oil cost is the result of "inflation."
    =======================

    Reuters ^ | May 19, 2005: 3:56 PM EDT | staff

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices continued recent heavy losses Thursday as dealers focused on a glut of U.S. stockpiles, which have grown to the highest in six years. Weakness was curtailed, however, after OPEC's president said the cartel could rein in output if inventories rose too fast and after an oil workers' strike forced shut several refineries in France. U.S. light crude for June delivery ended down 33 cents to $46.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $46.80, its lowest since mid February. U.S. crude is now nearly 20 percent below April's...

    (Snip)

    http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/19/mark...reut/index.htm

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    Prices are effected both by supply and demand. It is testament to your gross ignorance of economics that you see the need to create many threads rather than making any semblance of argument, a quantity over quality strategy.

    Here's a hint for you: Check if the price of oil in other currencies, ie Euros, Yen, $AUS, $NZ, Pesos, etc, also declined in a similar fashion. If it did not, than you can with a decent degree of certainty the price change to a revaluation of the $US, and if it did, than you can attribute it to a shift in the supply of oil.

    Or is that too complex for you?
    He or she who supports a State organized in a military way – whether directly or indirectly – participates in sin. Each man takes part in the sin by contributing to the maintenance of the State by paying taxes.

    ~ Gandhi

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    Quote Originally Posted by Symbiote
    Prices are effected both by supply and demand. It is testament to your gross ignorance of economics that you see the need to create many threads rather than making any semblance of argument, a quantity over quality strategy.

    Here's a hint for you: Check if the price of oil in other currencies, ie Euros, Yen, $AUS, $NZ, Pesos, etc, also declined in a similar fashion. If it did not, than you can with a decent degree of certainty the price change to a revaluation of the $US, and if it did, than you can attribute it to a shift in the supply of oil.

    Or is that too complex for you?
    This is a poster who states businesses constantly leverage their income through issuing stocks and bonds. You're wasting your time.
    These are my principles. If you don't like them I have others. ~Groucho Marx~

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    Quote Originally Posted by Symbiote
    Prices are effected both by supply and demand. It is testament to your gross ignorance of economics that you see the need to create many threads rather than making any semblance of argument, a quantity over quality strategy.

    Here's a hint for you: Check if the price of oil in other currencies, ie Euros, Yen, $AUS, $NZ, Pesos, etc, also declined in a similar fashion. If it did not, than you can with a decent degree of certainty the price change to a revaluation of the $US, and if it did, than you can attribute it to a shift in the supply of oil.

    Or is that too complex for you?
    Yes, that is too complex. Just ignore him. He is simply not bright ehough to get it, and knows he lost the last debate BADLY (note...nearly 600 views and not a single person felt compelled to chime in at the end when I saked them to if they felt he had any credibility at all). So instead of actually debating the point, which he knows he cannot win because he is an idiot, he is spamming.
    If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. —Samuel Adams

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    Quote Originally Posted by georged
    This is a poster who states businesses constantly leverage their income through issuing stocks and bonds. You're wasting your time.
    And he's a poster who doesn't even understand the very basics of how the currecny market artifically inflates the value of specific currencies.
    Some people love their country because of what it is, because of the principles it is built on, because of its prosperity and freedom. Then others love their country because it is their country, and will destroy all that is actually good about it to silence those who disagree. Which do you think you are? - Symbiote

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    He also has not yet explained why oil prices are not at a 6 yr low in response to the 6yr high as far as surplus goes, if the cost we are paying for oil is a direct result of supply/demand as opposed to primarily being a response to dollar weakness.

    There is a pretty good upside for a lot of the world as far as the surplus goes. Converted to any ohter major currency, oil is actually cheaper now than it was 5 years ago. In the US, it is still mirroring dollar devaluation, but in the rest of the world it is cheaper.

    Opec is going to be reigning in production in any event. Thsiis no sevret, there have been at least a half dozen statements. There is simply so much oil being pumped that they are running out of places to put it. Despite this, oil is still high. Their new target price at $50 per barrel (citing dollar decline as the reason for the shift) may have somethgn to do with it.
    If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. —Samuel Adams

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    All the geniuses here will still be opining that oil prices are the result of inflation when it falls below $30 a barrel.

    The truth is that no one really knows what the price of oil should be because it isn't truly market based as we normally experience here in the U.S. OPEC is a price fixing cartel. For all we know it might be $10 a barrel if the market actually determined the price. In the absence of any way to know that we can safely assume that supply and demand will always determine the price.

    I've posted several articles from business sources that all say the same thing. Today the price of oil dropped still further and it had absolutely nothing to do with "inflation."
    ========================================
    Oil Prices Slip on Mixed OPEC Signals
    May 20, 2005 2:41 PM EDT

    VIENNA, Austria - Crude oil futures prices slipped Friday amid conflicting signals from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a relatively upbeat assessment of energy prices from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

    Light, sweet crude for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12 cents to settle at $46.80 a barrel. The contract expired Friday.

    Heating oil and unleaded gas prices each rose by more than a cent to $1.3673 a gallon and $1.4191 a gallon, respectively.

    On London's International Petroleum Exchange, Brent crude for July rose 15 cents to $48.03.

    Greenspan said that oil and gas prices have calmed a bit recently, in his speech to the Economic Club of New York on Friday. Private inventories of crude oil in the United States have climbed to their highest level in three years, helping to curb the recent "price frenzy," he said.

    Earlier this week, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said his country - the group's main producer - was "ready to raise output as the market dictates." On Wednesday, OPEC president Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah, who is also Kuwait's oil minister, said the group could cut its output ceiling by 1 million barrels a day if global oil inventories pile up too quickly.

    But Al Sabah appeared to reverse himself Thursday, telling Dow Jones Newswires: "We believe we should sustain production."

    The comments appeared to reflect the push-pull of OPEC's twin concerns - maintaining stability without seeing the floor drop out of oil markets.

    OPEC traditionally produces more than the group's official quota, now at 27.5 million barrels a day. PVM Oil Associates in Vienna said that - without Iraq, which is exempt from ceilings while it rebuilds - over-quota output from OPEC's 10 other members was at just over 700,000 barrels in May, or about 300,000 barrels less than Al Sabah has estimated.


    Crude futures are more than $10 below April's all-time high of $58.28. OPEC is to meet June 15 in Vienna to plan strategy for the second half of the year.

    Analyst Jonathan Copus of Investec Securities in London said OPEC's anxieties are being fed by "a six-year high in (U.S.) inventories, prices pulling back a bit and various conflicting pieces of information about the possibility of demand erosion."

    The U.S. Department of Energy revealed a build of 334 million barrels in the previous week, the 13th increase in the past 14 weeks. Inventories are up 34 million barrels from a year ago, the highest since May 1999.

    However, oil editorial manager Ng Weng Hoong at Energyasia.com said the inventory figures are not as bearish as they seem.

    The United States lacks sufficient refineries to process the crude oil, and global demand is growing faster than the stock builds, Ng said. He added that traders should also focus on China and India, whose appetites for crude oil are still increasing.


    The Energy Department said Thursday that U.S. refiners ran at 94.0 percent capacity, up from 91.8 percent a week ago. With refiners approaching peak capacity, analysts worry that the facilities may not be able to cope when demand, especially for gasoline, rises in summer.

    Analysts also pointed to work unrest, now in its fifth day, that has shut or crippled five of Total SA's six refineries in France.


    http://start.earthlink.net/article/b...0520-516968131

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    Quote Originally Posted by Symbiote
    Prices are effected both by supply and demand. It is testament to your gross ignorance of economics that you see the need to create many threads rather than making any semblance of argument, a quantity over quality strategy.

    Here's a hint for you: Check if the price of oil in other currencies, ie Euros, Yen, $AUS, $NZ, Pesos, etc,
    also declined in a similar fashion. If it did not, than you can with a decent degree of certainty the price change to a revaluation of the $US, and if it did, than you can attribute it to a shift in the supply of oil.

    Or is that too complex for you?

    Are you as stupid as your post indicates? Of course I understand the relationship between supply and demand. That is what this thread is about; you numbskull.

    In point of fact France (which operates under the Euro the last time I checked) is having some adverse consequences at the increased cost of fuel. But you probably didn't know that, did you? What do you know, exactly?

    COUNTING COST OF OIL

    French Industry Minister Patrick Devedjian said on Tuesday that high oil prices, currently around $53.50 a barrel, were taking their toll.

    "The current crisis of fossil fuel prices is a handicap to economic growth in (oil-importing) countries such as France," he told a Paris news conference.


    http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuot...6638776_newsml

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    Quote Originally Posted by Missouri Mule
    Are you as stupid as your post indicates? Of course I understand the relationship between supply and demand. That is what this thread is about; you numbskull.
    Do we really need to go back and show again that when converted to other currencies, the price of oil has only increased 13% since 2000, but around 60% when considered in dollars.

    You, sir are a fool. You are ignorant, have no knowledge of the the areas in which you comment, and are not even man enough to admit when you are wrong, you are not even man enough to admit it to yourself. You are a foolish neo fascist, and we all get dumber every time we read something you post.

    Yes, france would certainly prefer that oil be around $35 per barrel. That would put the Euro price BELOW where it was 5 years ago. We would all like to have $10 per barrel oil, or free oil. Every nation ont he planet would benifit from that, and growth would be faster.

    As has cleraly been shown, this isn't going to happen largely because of dollar weakness.

    Nearly 600 views of the last go round on this, and NOBODY was willing to post that they felt you had any credibility left on the issue. My job here is done. I

    I really don't care where you believe oil prices come form. With your 8th grade understanding of economic matters, I can only assume you are a 15 yr old kid pretending to be what they are not. I only worry that somebody who is less knowledgable than you (like a 12 yr old kid) might read your posts and act on the information in them, which could be disasterous since your advice and analysius mainly seems to be good ways to bankrupt people.
    If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. —Samuel Adams

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    I think every nation on the planet would be completely screwed by $10 oil, but at least it might convince the US right that humans do have an impact on climate change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jo Bennett
    I think every nation on the planet would be completely screwed by $10 oil, but at least it might convince the US right that humans do have an impact on climate change.
    from an environmental standpoint, it would be a disaster. From an economic standpoint, it would fuel an era of unprecendented growth.
    If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. —Samuel Adams

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    Of course I understand the relationship between supply and demand.
    Ok then, if you're so smart, explain in terms of supply and demand why the price for your ignorance is so low.
    He or she who supports a State organized in a military way – whether directly or indirectly – participates in sin. Each man takes part in the sin by contributing to the maintenance of the State by paying taxes.

    ~ Gandhi

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    Quote Originally Posted by Symbiote
    Ok then, if you're so smart, explain in terms of supply and demand why the price for your ignorance is so low.
    I'll say this for you and Daewoo. You runneth over with an oversupply of pomposity and self-importance. The very idea that the price of oil is the result of inflation is so preposterous as to be product of dementia.

    You point revolves around this business of the U.S. dollar and the Euro and "inflation." To show how absurd this is, if the U.S. tomorrow ceased to exist and took its demand for oil out of the equation, the price of oil would collapse overnight. We import 12.8 million barrels of oil out of a total oil production worldwide of 78 million barrels per day. The price of oil has come down almost $12 per barrel in a matter of weeks. Our inflation has hardly budged and yet you believe that oil price is the product of "inflation." If we left the scene oil would be at $20 a barrel almost overnight. This is just like the tech bubble of a few years ago. People believed that investing in tech stocks was a license to print money. Oil traders believe that the price could only go one way. Now they are going to have to scramble to cover their bets (and futures trading is certainly gambling). Imagine what would happen if we took our demand out of the equation. It would be an avalanche of selling. And inflation would have nothing; nothing to do with it.

    As an aside the Saudi oil minister says he wants oil to sell at $28 per barrel. Our government would like $25. That's close enough for government work. We can live with either. Why do the Saudis want $28 per barrel? Because they know that if the price is too high they cannot hope to maintain their markets. The price will inevitably lead to other sources of energy as it always does. I've never heard the Saudis, or any other oil producer, bring up the subject of inflation; not once. The Saudis have said over and over again they are willing to produce as much oil as we need; many more barrels than we are currently importing. They do bring up a good point and that is our lack of oil refining capacity. Then we have to look at importing refined products. Again, no mention of inflation. I've never heard him say he intended to start asking for Euros either. Frankly, I wish he would, then this RIDICULOUS AND STUPID argument would promptly end. I hope they do. And as the Euro sinks, and it will, they'll regret it. But they are not as STUPID as some of the posters here. They know that in the end, the American dollar is still king; the U.S. economy is strong and getting stronger and the Euro may not stand the test of time as the E.U. collapses from the sheer weight of its bureaucracy and pompous leadership of Chirac and other numbskulls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Missouri Mule
    I'll say this for you and Daewoo. You runneth over with an oversupply of pomposity and self-importance. The very idea that the price of oil is the result of inflation is so preposterous as to be product of dementia.
    I finally figured out what the problem here is. You are such a XXXXX you do not understand "treasury level inflation"

    You point revolves around this business of the U.S. dollar and the Euro and "inflation." To show how absurd this is, if the U.S. tomorrow ceased to exist and took its demand for oil out of the equation, the price of oil would collapse overnight.
    not just the euro and inflation, all major currencies and the decline in value of the dollar, which is treasury level inflaiton.

    We import 12.8 million barrels of oil out of a total oil production worldwide of 78 million barrels per day. The price of oil has come down almost $12 per barrel in a matter of weeks. Our inflation has hardly budged and yet you believe that oil price is the product of "inflation."
    No, the value of the dollar has increased against other currencies in the last several weeks due to soem decent economic data (which will reverse badly as we get further into the year and our import season begins).

    If we left the scene oil would be at $20 a barrel almost overnight. This is just like the tech bubble of a few years ago. People believed that investing in tech stocks was a license to print money. Oil traders believe that the price could only go one way. Now they are going to have to scramble to cover their bets (and futures trading is certainly gambling). Imagine what would happen if we took our demand out of the equation. It would be an avalanche of selling. And inflation would have nothing; nothing to do with it.
    Again, 600 views, nobody buys your childish explanation. you still have not explained why we are sitting on the highest surplus in 6 years, but not enjoying the cheapest oil in six years. Nor have you explained why when you transfer to other currencies, the price of oil is virtually unchanged from 6 years ago, yet mirrors dollar devaluation almost exactly, even now.

    As an aside the Saudi oil minister says he wants oil to sell at $28 per barrel. Our government would like $25. That's close enough for government work. We can live with either. Why do the Saudis want $28 per barrel? Because they know that if the price is too high they cannot hope to maintain their markets. The price will inevitably lead to other sources of energy as it always does. I've never heard the Saudis, or any other oil producer, bring up the subject of inflation; not once.
    then you are a XXXXX who is not paying attention. The saudis have discussed swithing to a petro euro as opposed to a petro dollar on several occasions becuase the value of the dollar keeps falling and currently they accept payment in dollars but have to pay operating costs in dollars.

    Additionall, it was the saudi oil minister at the last Opec meeting that announced they were pushing for $40 per barrel. It was not until after Bushs meeting with the sauds that they changed theri tune. the same week they announced that they would not be participating in the next OPEC meeting. So essentially they said "this si what we want.....NOT"

    The Saudis have said over and over again they are willing to produce as much oil as we need; many more barrels than we are currently importing.
    The sauds currently only have a 300,000 BPD reserve capacity. they are currently producing just about all they can.



    I just deleted the rest. It was too stupid to bother answering. Agian, if you can find even a single person who wants to side with you on this, I will continue the discussion. Unfortunatly, you are justy too stupid to get it, and your neo fascist mindset keeps you from seeing anything that falls outside of your rather limited and pathetic world view.

    I am not surprised you never picked up on things like a shift fr0om a petro dollar to a petro euro being discussed. You were shocked when ford bonds were downgraded to junk. You were quite possibly the only person on the planet who did not see that coming. Not suprised. Most 8th graders don't follow such things.
    If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. —Samuel Adams

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    Quote Originally Posted by daewoo
    I am not surprised you never picked up on things like a shift fr0om a petro dollar to a petro euro being discussed. You were shocked when ford bonds were downgraded to junk. You were quite possibly the only person on the planet who did not see that coming. Not suprised. Most 8th graders don't follow such things.
    A waste of time and bandwidth. Another uneducated blind patriot.
    These are my principles. If you don't like them I have others. ~Groucho Marx~

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