Who the devil is pulling out of Afghanistan?

I put this thread up to debate a hypothetical situation.I did not post a news bulletin.Everyone , so far who has viewed this thread seems to have had the intelligence to realise that... except one.

I think it is a little far fetched. The majority of the main-stream Pakistani population would never ally itself with Taliban insurgents. Without the support of the local populace, the insurgency will wither and die.

Originally Posted by snakespit

I think it is a little far fetched. The majority of the main-stream Pakistani population would never ally itself with Taliban insurgents. Without the support of the local populace, the insurgency will wither and die.

I heard something similar on the radio this evening. Apparently a video of the Taliban whipping a woman accused of adultery in Swat has rallied the general populace into condemning them.

Originally Posted by gansao

O.K. We pull out of Afganisthan. Chaos takes over, the Muslim extremists rule.
Pakistan is gradually taken over by the 'Taliban'.
Taliban government in Pakistan.
Pakistan government goads India by moving forces into Kashmir, India responds. Pakistan gives India ultimatum ,back off or they will risk a nuclear strike.
Meanwhile Pakistan gives Iran access to nuclear weapons and means of delivery.
Is this a possibility?

It is not only a possibility but a probability given the time and the chaotic nature of the relationships and agendas of some of the parties you mention in your scenario. The relationship between India and Pakistan has always been fragile and tenuous. It would take very little to push it over the edge. And if a coup ever takes place and any of a number of radical islamic factions ever takes control of the Pakistani Government, then all bets are off and any number of outcomes are possible, none of them good.

Originally Posted by Archangel

It is not only a possibility but a probability given the time and the chaotic nature of the relationships and agendas of some of the parties you mention in your scenario. The relationship between India and Pakistan has always been fragile and tenuous. It would take very little to push it over the edge. And if a coup ever takes place and any of a number of radical islamic factions ever takes control of the Pakistani Government, then all bets are off and any number of outcomes are possible, none of them good.

Incorrect. First of all, Islamic insurgency has always been a tool of the Pakistan military and intelligence services. It has always been controlled, funded and trained by them. Whenever an insurgency organization within Pakistan breaks free of government control, it gets hammered down. Pakistan views Islamic terrorism as a tool against India. When that tool is used against them, things change. The Pakistan military goes after the insurgency. You forget that the Pakistan military is essentially secular and has long had procedures to prevent overly religious people from rising within the power structure.

And while relations between India and Pakistan have been fragile in the past, to call them so fragile now that a single incident could cause a nuclear war is insane. Especially given who is in power right now in both countries.

Originally Posted by obvious_child

Incorrect. First of all, Islamic insurgency has always been a tool of the Pakistan military and intelligence services. It has always been controlled, funded and trained by them. Whenever an insurgency organization within Pakistan breaks free of government control, it gets hammered down. Pakistan views Islamic terrorism as a tool against India. When that tool is used against them, things change. The Pakistan military goes after the insurgency. You forget that the Pakistan military is essentially secular and has long had procedures to prevent overly religious people from rising within the power structure.

And while relations between India and Pakistan have been fragile in the past, to call them so fragile now that a single incident could cause a nuclear war is insane. Especially given who is in power right now in both countries.

To be honest I think the first paragraph is a very convincing argument against the possibility of a Taliban takeover. Even if the Taliban could make large parts of the country virtually ungovernable, if the army remains secular and has the support of the west then I suppose it could stop them from taking over the government.
The problem is that a country with Nuclear arms would effectively be in a state of civil war and it would be likely that there would be a military take over of government.


The second paragraph addresses the present state of affairs between India and Pakistan, not the nightmare scenerio of an Islamic fundamental government of Pakistan.

Originally Posted by gansao

.... The problem is that a country with Nuclear arms would effectively be in a state of civil war and it would be likely that there would be a military take over of government....

Which must be why Donald Rumsfeld made it possible for Pakistan to engage in nuclear armament.

Originally Posted by simone

Which must be why Donald Rumsfeld made it possible for Pakistan to engage in nuclear armament.

And there was I thinking that they did it all by themselves.