I know this comes as bad news for the doomsters and gloomsters but it now appears the sky is not falling after all. What a shame! Woe is us. Whatever shall we do?
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December 7,2006

Peak Oil Theory Analyzed by CERA

"Peak Oil" the widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, is the subject of a new analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). CERA finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels -- three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory's proponents.

Cambridge, MA (PRWEB) December 7, 2006 -- Peak Oil, the widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, is the subject of a new analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). CERA finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels -- three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by Peak Oil theory's proponents -- and that the "peak oil" argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.

This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil
"The global resource base of conventional and unconventional oils, including historical production of 1.08 trillion barrels and yet-to-be-produced resources, is 4.82 trillion barrels and likely to grow," CERA Director of Oil Industry Activity Peter M. Jackson writes in Why the Peak Oil Theory Falls Down: Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources. The CERA projection is based on the firm's analysis of fields currently in production and those yet-to-be produced or discovered.

"The 'peak oil' theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate actions and turn attention away from the real issues," Jackson observes. "Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies. This is a very important debate, and as such it deserves a rational and measured discourse."

"This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil," says CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin, of the Peak Oil theory. "Each time -- whether it was the 'gasoline famine' at the end of WWI or the 'permanent shortage' of the 1970s -- technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline. There's no reason to think that technology is finished this time."

The Peak Oil report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the critical issues. "It is not helpful to couch the debate in terms of a superficial analysis of reservoir constraints. It will be aboveground factors such as geopolitics, conflict, economics and technology that will dictate the outcome." The report also points to such aboveground questions as timing and openness to investment, infrastructure development, and the impact of technological change on demand for oil...

(Snip)

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/12/prweb488226.htm

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"We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill

Not exactly learned research when it's a company largely funded by the oil industry. It has an interest in convincing the world not to seek alternative energy sources. Even if that weren't the case, they're still estimating reserves, and while it is entirely possible that new reserves may become economic to access, demand is continuing to rise and the prices will go up, even if production doesn't fall straight away. And that's before we face up to dealing with climate change.

After getting beat over the head with a stick in the last thread, MOST people would have learned a lesson.

I'm not going to bother this time, I'll mind the definition of insanity. I bolded the key part of this article from my perspective. More than one grain of salt is required in its analysis. I'm not a "peak oil" theorist myself, but as a realist, I know that oil is finite, and banking on "new undiscovered pools" is risky business at best. It will run out, sooner than we'd like.

I have a lot of respect for Daniel Yergin, his book "The Prize:The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power" is excellent and is recommended, almost mandatory, reading for anyone interested in the subject. The part that I underlined I agree with 100%.

Waxy

I'm not surprised you jumped right to the "funded by the oil industry" conspiracy theory card Jo.

Waxy

I see you didn't bother to refute the article. You don't really know if oil is finite or not. We have vast resources of hog effluent that could be converted to diesel fuel for example and that doesn't even require drilling in the Arctic.

The only shortage existing is a little imagination and the will to throw off negative thinking. We'll have plenty of oil for centuries to come. The proved reserves keep rising every year. In a couple of centuries will probably have about 10 trillion barrels and they'll be giving it away just to be rid of it.

Your bolded section is what I have been suggesting all along. We just have to stop telling ourselves that the sky is falling and get busy to do what is required. We already know that the United States has the largest reserves of coal in the entire world (about 52%) and it can be converted to other sources of energy. The sun has unlimited amounts of energy as is the hydrogen in the ocean's sea water. By the time that these other energy sources are exploited, oil will be a drug on the market and selling for $10 a barrel if they can find buyers. It'll be used mainly for plastics and other more appropriate uses rather than burning as fuel in our motor vehicles. Diesel fuel can be made of most anything including hog effluent. And I KNOW there is no shortage of that stuff.

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"We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill

At least we agree on something.

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"We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill

It's not really a conspiracy theory, it's just an exercise in "following the money".

The CERA report has already been picked apart. Even the DOE called it "breathtakingly optimistic"

Some comment on it

http://www.energybulletin.net/19120.html

Saudi Arabia has been fully explored for 20 years. They are not going to "find" any more fields, and they certainly do not have 4 fields the size of Shaybah in reserve.

Personally, I would be interested in seeing what this list of projects is. I am not about to spend $2500 to purchase their report, though. I bought their last one and it was absolute garbage.

This does not look good for the CERA report as an investment. They cherry picked a few bits of data from the report to send out with the press release, and the best they could do was data that has been completly and publicly debunked.


Personally, I am most concerned with the DOEs statement regarding the report. The CERA report does nto say that oil will not peak, it says that it will not peak for 20-25 years. Hopefully that is not part of what the DOE is calling "breathtakingly optimistic". Peak oil woudl be a big enough PITA 20-25 years out. I don't really want to see it tomorrow, when we are completely unprepared.

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If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen. —Samuel Adams

Who are these chicken littles and what is their interest in forcasting doom?

Whats their angle?

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There was a demon that lived in the air. They said whoever challenged him would die. Their controls would freeze up, their planes would buffet wildly, and they would disintegrate. The demon lived at Mach 1 on the meter, seven hundred and fifty miles an hour, where the air could no longer move out of the way. He lived behind a barrier through which they said no man could ever pass. They called it the sound barrier.

Most here, apparently. Doom and gloom sells. One could probably go into the local Barnes and Nobel book store and find 10s if not 100s of books forecasting the end of civilization, financial ruin and the collapse of civilization. Why? Because it sells. People love this stuff. Why do you think that disaster movies are made? They are entertaining. One of the strangest ironies is that some people, in the midst of disaster often find exhilliaration in the death and destruction. The truth is that most of us live boring, mundane lives. Excitement; even horrible things, wakes us up to life. Why do people rush to the scene of a house fire or a bad automobile accident? It's what we do to stimulate our senses. People rush off to wars in great anticipation of the excitement and glory. It's in our DNA. And it seems that a good many here have more than their fair share of that DNA coursing though their bodies.

There is no lack of energy in the world. But to hear the doom and gloom crowd tell it we will have to return to the horse and buggy or we will all be doomed. I say bring on $20 gasoline a gallon prices. Make my day.

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"We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill

I'll agree that such people do exist, but you dismiss every possible threat to your lifestyle, anything that might require you to get off your arse and change the way you live as scaremongering and junk because it comforts you to think, like the good little conservative you are, that the world will never change. Yes, the chicken little exist, but far more of a problem are the ostriches, with their heads firmly in the sand and their arses stuck in the air.

I don't dismiss every threat to my lifestyle. I have labored long and hard to make the case that terrorism is the greatest threat of this generation. The ones who are ignoring this problem are the very same ones who should doom and gloom from the rooftops every time they get a chance.

What I do is to read and study the responsible experts who analzye the data in every way possible. I don't take a fact here, a fact there, and build a case that the world is ending. That's what the doom and gloom crowd does.

I WANT $20 a gallon gasoline so we get off our duffs and the necessary action necessary to free ourselves from the bondage of the oil barons and gangsters around the world who control this source. We have an unlimited amount of energy from solar energy that once technology masters it will free us. Oil will be a drug on the market just like all commodities can become and may become virtually worthless as a fuel. Not in our lifetimes but eventually. We just have to move up the timetable.

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"We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill

I see you haven't bothered to refute anything or acknowledge your errors in the last thread, choosing instead to run from that one and start a new one.

We've been through this exercise once already, and gained absolutely nothing, what sane person would do it again? It can be refuted, and rather easily, the CERA report is the absolute "best case scenario", and is full of holes and "creative" thinking.

I know it's finite, I also know that you are beyond my ability, and way beyond my patience threshold, to educate on the subject.

Hog effluent? You're losing it MM.

I'm going to assume this is sarcasm, because otherwise it would have to be interpreted as sheer idiocy.

Ohhh to be young (or old) and naive.......

Waxy

Ohhhhhhhh merrrrrrcy.

MM, you made my day with this one. I'll be laughing out loud about this paragraph for weeks.



Waxy

I'm glad I made your day.

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"We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill