Well, he won't last till 2010, because he has an agreement with Gordon Brown to go within 2 years. He could, however, unless he loses a vote of no confidence in parliament. It's also likely he will go if he loses his education trainwreck plan. The no confidence thing is key though. If he loses that then he will pretty much have to call a general election, but it's unlikely because he still has a majority of 60, and the rebels will come back to him on a confidence vote, not least because they'll get lynched by central office if they don't, eg have problems getting selected as a candidate etc.