Originally Posted by daewoo

No, and as I explained to you, amd at least a dozen other people have tried to explain to you, the cost of oil rose form around $15-20 to around $60 as the result of devaluation of the dollar, which is why it mirrors dollar decline for the same period almost exactly. That is also why OPEC kept changin their target price and announcing that they were doing so due to dollar devaluation. The 60-78 range was based on geopolitical concerns and potential supply shortage. So, which would be the "primary" driver...the one that resulted in a $45 increase, or the bit at the end that resulted in an 18% increase??

As usual, you are dead wrong. Currently I only have one position open in commodities, and that is on copper, and thus far I am making out just fine on that. It does not matter which way the commodity market goes, you can make money either way. The last position on oil I had was wneh it hit $55 last time I opened a no delivery spot position (long) and then sold at $64. I told you that is what I was going to do oevr at whistlestopper. 2 other people who read that thread later send me mesages thanking me for the tip, they had done the same (bought spot positions at 55) and done very well with them.

The only other position I have open with my "play" money right now is 60,000 shares of GM. I bought that way back when we were arguing about it. I am sure you remeber. You claimed that based on your test drvie of the Ford 500 (which later flopped) that ford was a good buy and thet GM was destined for failure, while I argued that only one company was likely to survive as a major player and the economic fundametals indicated that it HAD to be GM, there was simply no other way it could go, and I said GM stock was the better bet.

I bought the GM, and as of right now am up roughly 52%. I plan to dump it soon as I think GMs numbers are going to be shite this next year. In fact, I owuld have dumped it a little earlier but I needed to hold it until after the first of the year for tax purposes.

How did that ford stock work for you, Mule? We all know, so you don't have to humiliate yourself with an answer.

Timing the market is not that difficult if you understand how the market works and how the underlyign fundamentals are likely to reflect on the market. Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, but if you know what you are doing and pay attention to the fundamentals, you shoud be OK (that is a general statement...I think that you as an individual would crash and burn since you have exactly ZERO economic knowledge).

I don't know if you caught the latest 1% survey (top 1% of american earners) but the share of their investments in US equity (stock) markets has fallen form roughly 33% last year, to 9 percent this year. What do they know that you don't mule? These are people who understand money far better than you ever will, and they are bailing on the stock market. I wonder why?

I am a little confused as to why you think that ANYBODY would take economic advice from you. You are ALWAYS wrong. I have never, ever seen you make an economic prediction that was correct. Not once, not ever. You liek to harp on the fact that I said I didn't think we woudl ever see oil under $60 again. Do I really need to remind you that in that SAME conversation, you predicted that oil would back below $20 by now? I was off by $5. You were off by $25, and at least I have the warmest winter inrecorded history to fall back on as a pseudo excuse.

You are never right about anything related to economics. If you said "George Washington is on the dollar bill" I would pull one out to see if they had changed it, and be surprised if they had not. I would jsut as soon burn money in the furnace as take any investment advice from you.

Originally Posted by JPSartre12

Wow! You two really do have some long-term baggage, don't you?

As for the auto stock situation, I'd take GM over Ford. GM actually sold more cars outside of NA than it did within NA last year and is growing in China. It is #1 in China. Ford's picture may look better, but they're hocking the house in order to cut their workforce and legacy costs. The 500 and Focus are POS', while GM has many new offerings that will sell, including its new Satrun Aura.
If you want to put some money at risk for a chance of making a lot, DCX would be a good choice. There's rumblings around Detroit that Daimler may be looking to sell off its US Chrysler business.

As for my "play money", I'm researching colored diamonds. The ROIs on them is outstanding. I just need to understand the color, grading and rarity factors a little better before jumping in.

Originally Posted by Missouri Mule

Yes, Daewoo has been peddling his views on "inflation" in oil prices for so long and duly informing me every chance he gets that I am some kind of XXXXX. Meanwhile he is being fitted with a barrel when the creditors come to sell his assets to pay off his gambling in the futures market. He's convinced that he has figured out a legal way to print money on the future's market and is now getting his clock cleaned. He said oil would never go below $60 a barrel and it is now below $54 a barrel but he continues to insist I AM the XXXXX. Go figure.

He says that I said oil would go to $20 a barrel. I never said any such thing. It may do that but I never predicted it.

Originally Posted by Dono

I have no dog in this fight, but you purport to know the status of Daewoo's finances. I cannot understand why he would choose to reveal such things to one he considers "some kind of XXXXX". As I understand the futures market, the real world successful investor never wins them all, he just wins more than he loses.

Originally Posted by JPSartre12

Wow! You two really do have some long-term baggage, don't you?

As for the auto stock situation, I'd take GM over Ford. GM actually sold more cars outside of NA than it did within NA last year and is growing in China. It is #1 in China. Ford's picture may look better, but they're hocking the house in order to cut their workforce and legacy costs. The 500 and Focus are POS', while GM has many new offerings that will sell, including its new Satrun Aura.
If you want to put some money at risk for a chance of making a lot, DCX would be a good choice. There's rumblings around Detroit that Daimler may be looking to sell off its US Chrysler business.

Originally Posted by daewoo

......


I assume you are talking actual diamonds as opposed to paper diamonds? It is kind of nice to have somethign of value that you can hold in your hand as opposed to paper. You have to be careful not to develop pirates syndrome. I keep silver and gold around the house (coins and ingots). After a while, once your collection has grown large enough, you start to feel like a pirate and I #### you not you start to get an urge to bury your treasure. I have confirmed with some others I know that keep physical commodities on site that this is a universal affliction and not just a freaky urge that I get.

I have not given onto the impulse, but I have had several secret compartments and a couple of hidden safes installed at the house, which is almost as good, but without making you feel bats##t crazy.