Originally Posted by daewoo

No, and as I explained to you, amd at least a dozen other people have tried to explain to you, the cost of oil rose form around $15-20 to around $60 as the result of devaluation of the dollar, which is why it mirrors dollar decline for the same period almost exactly. That is also why OPEC kept changin their target price and announcing that they were doing so due to dollar devaluation. The 60-78 range was based on geopolitical concerns and potential supply shortage. So, which would be the "primary" driver...the one that resulted in a $45 increase, or the bit at the end that resulted in an 18% increase??

As usual, you are dead wrong. Currently I only have one position open in commodities, and that is on copper, and thus far I am making out just fine on that. It does not matter which way the commodity market goes, you can make money either way. The last position on oil I had was wneh it hit $55 last time I opened a no delivery spot position (long) and then sold at $64. I told you that is what I was going to do oevr at whistlestopper. 2 other people who read that thread later send me mesages thanking me for the tip, they had done the same (bought spot positions at 55) and done very well with them.

The only other position I have open with my "play" money right now is 60,000 shares of GM. I bought that way back when we were arguing about it. I am sure you remeber. You claimed that based on your test drvie of the Ford 500 (which later flopped) that ford was a good buy and thet GM was destined for failure, while I argued that only one company was likely to survive as a major player and the economic fundametals indicated that it HAD to be GM, there was simply no other way it could go, and I said GM stock was the better bet.

I bought the GM, and as of right now am up roughly 52%. I plan to dump it soon as I think GMs numbers are going to be shite this next year. In fact, I owuld have dumped it a little earlier but I needed to hold it until after the first of the year for tax purposes.

How did that ford stock work for you, Mule? We all know, so you don't have to humiliate yourself with an answer.

Timing the market is not that difficult if you understand how the market works and how the underlyign fundamentals are likely to reflect on the market. Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose, but if you know what you are doing and pay attention to the fundamentals, you shoud be OK (that is a general statement...I think that you as an individual would crash and burn since you have exactly ZERO economic knowledge).

I don't know if you caught the latest 1% survey (top 1% of american earners) but the share of their investments in US equity (stock) markets has fallen form roughly 33% last year, to 9 percent this year. What do they know that you don't mule? These are people who understand money far better than you ever will, and they are bailing on the stock market. I wonder why?

I am a little confused as to why you think that ANYBODY would take economic advice from you. You are ALWAYS wrong. I have never, ever seen you make an economic prediction that was correct. Not once, not ever. You liek to harp on the fact that I said I didn't think we woudl ever see oil under $60 again. Do I really need to remind you that in that SAME conversation, you predicted that oil would back below $20 by now? I was off by $5. You were off by $25, and at least I have the warmest winter inrecorded history to fall back on as a pseudo excuse.

You are never right about anything related to economics. If you said "George Washington is on the dollar bill" I would pull one out to see if they had changed it, and be surprised if they had not. I would jsut as soon burn money in the furnace as take any investment advice from you.